Market Research & Analysis

Market data is researched and analyzed to identify and define target customers. Primary and secondary sources include customer and competitor surveys and interviews, government datasets, publications, whitepapers, and regulatory documents. Analytics conducted to determine market conditions, trends, and future forecasts.

Brand and Market Position

Customer perceptions and loyalty is analyzed based on brand history, maintenance reliability, lifecycle and affordability. Performance and operational value is also evaluated in depth to determine cost per available seat mile, residual value, performance specification (payload/range, etc.), and situational awareness and safety.

Sales and Distribution Channels

In-house operations and licensing of sales and distribution channels are assessed. Coordination is conducted with associated departments and leadership teams for sales and distribution channel cooperation. Company profiles, suitability, and introductions are performed for licensing of sales and distribution channel collaboration.

Pricing and Financing

Primary and secondary market pricing of an offering is analyzed against the competition within the current and future marketplace. This involves rate of depreciation, financing options, warranty value, avionics and parts obsolescence, service bulletins and regulatory compliance, pricing power, and return on investment.

Space 4.0

Greater commercialization of space is resulting in increased innovation, entrant democratization and competition, scalability, NewSpace investments and business models, constellation disaggregation, reusable launch systems and cost/weight competitiveness across all categories, SWaP-C, and public-private partnerships. Digital transformation in technologies and engineering is offering greater access to pertinent data with greater computation at greater speeds and providing operators with optimized decision-making to complete multiple missions across integrated domains. The space sector is increasingly enabling commercial productivity and prosperity, while commercial innovation and competition is increasingly driving the space sector; this mutual reinforcement is accelerating growth. Exemplary companies driving advancements and growth are Boeing Space and SpaceX and its Starlink disaggregated constellation, Falcon 9 and reusable launch, and Starship and space exploration. Boeing Space and SpaceX support the NASA Artemis program.

Space 4.0 is sector-specific; as it pertains to the 4th industrial revolution.

Speed of Need

The space industry, both commercial and institutional, is transitioning towards rapid innovation, prototyping, fieldability, and maintenance. A shift towards agility from multi-decade acquisition cycles to the speed of need in order to remain atop the rapidly evolving landscape. The speed of need can be referred to as celerity, a term that describes the swiftness of movement taken by the US Government and increasingly by the Government of Canada towards accelerated development and procurement of leading-edge technologies that are increasingly commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) and enabled by open system architectures, rapid application development, and digital technologies and engineering. Exemplifying the speed of need is the USAF eSeries and the rapid digital design, development, and IOC of the Boeing eT-7A Red Hawk.

Ensures competition continuum advantages through key capabilities, such as optimized decision making at the speed of relevance, digital design and engineering, and SWaP-C.

Digital Drivers & Disruptors

Innovations in digital technologies and engineering are exemplified by artificial intelligence, cloud computing and storage services, quantum systems, autonomy, robotics and cobotics, virtual and augmented reality, additive manufacturing, rapid prototyping and simulation, and blockchain and encryption. These innovations provide greater access and analysis of pertinent data at the speed of relevance for optimized decision making and improved situational awareness and interoperability. Used individually or in combination, they are generating competitive advantages and are enabling digital transformation and SWaP-C across all industries. Advancements in digital technologies and engineering are also diversifying the industry by enabling new entrants, increasing scalability, revising procurement and lifecycle support, and creating customer-focused business models. Applied to the space industry, it is a force multiplier across terrestrial domains of the aerospace and defence industry.

Additive manufacturing market for space applications is forecasted to reach $5.5 billion USD by 2027. Cobots are robots that collaborate with people and reduce costs, expedite production, and diversify business models; market growth forecast to reach $7.2 billion USD in 2025 at +55% CAGR from $981 million USD in 2019.

Force Multiplier

Advancements in space technologies accelerate our economic prosperity, safety and security, and overall quality of life; it is a terrestrial technology enabler that offers an abundance in breakout capabilities. Due to its importance, this domain is becoming increasingly contested by actors that seek to disrupt, degrade, destroy, deter, and deny its peaceful, secure, and stable access. Governments are therefore, refocusing their efforts, such as with the US Space Force (USSF) and DND/CAF Joint and Combined Space Program, readjusting regulations, such as CFUIS, Commerce Dept., FIRRMA, etc., reenergizing the space industry with domestic public-private partnerships and international development projects with key allies, and reviewing and revitalizing STEM education, immigration, and science and research programs to support space operations capabilities and capacities. The USSF Vision for a Digital Service strategy with funding of billions of dollars over the next decade on digital enterprise architecture and data-as-a-service for optimized, data driven decision-making and its recent $32.5 million contract with Palantir Technologies exemplifies this need.

Commercial innovation and competition is driving growth across the space sector, resulting in greater global entanglement and opportunities for international partnerships and free and peaceful operations throughout this increasingly important domain. Today, space sector R&D is 80% commercial and 20% institutional; throughout the 20th century, this proportion was reversed.

Sustainable Space

Environmental sustainability offers benefit and opportunity to all domains including space. Increased space debris and congestion across the three orbital regimes and their limited slots and the throughout the RF spectrum are creating market needs for orbital collision prediction and avoidance capability.

Over 60 years of space operations and recent satellite collisions and testing has resulted in approx. 30,000 softball size or larger trackable debris and approx. 170 million smaller objects that could disable or destroy a satellite. Most collision avoidance is conducted manually along with limited automated collision avoidance systems that track and avoid other satellites and debris. Multilateral institutional tracking is conducted by the Combined Space Operations Center (CSpOC), which is expanding its data-sharing agreements with allies and commercial companies and by Space Force that operates Space Fence. Regulatory compliance and enforcement is dynamic and evolving, as exemplified by the Space Safety Coalition that was supported by the United Nations Committee for the Peaceful Use of Outer Space (UN COPUOS) in June 2019.

As of 2021, there are over 3,000 operational satellites in orbit with approx. 77% in LEO, 4% in MEO, 2% in Elliptical, and 17% in GEO. There is limited availability of slots (particularly in GEO) and not all are equal. Space congestion is further compounded by market trends towards disaggregation throughout LEO, such as with SpaceX Starlink’s approx. 42,000 satellite constellation, and limited radio frequency allocation. The cost of space congestion and collision risk in GEO and LEO is 5-10% and +5-10% of total mission expenditure respectively, amounting to multiple millions in potential cost. Human safety in space operations and exploration is also at risk, such as at the International Space Station (ISS). Space debris and congestion risk imposes significant potential cost and thus, this presents market opportunities for automated collision avoidance and space traffic management systems.

Cislunar Space & Operations

The operational space where the earth’s and moon’s gravity intersect. This operational space optimizes command and control of Earth’s orbits and it is a gateway to the moon and outer space operations. The cislunar space and its strategic Lagrange points is an operational high-ground that offers preferable gravitational affects, observation of all earth’s orbits, mitigation of denial risks, and orbital and outer space operations that are substantially more cost-effective, scalable, and can serve as a line of communication focal point. Optimized capability and capacity areas include logistics, in-situ manufacturing and space resource utilization (SRU), research and development, storage and refuelling, and security. NASA is currently working with SpaceX and other providers to develop a cislunar station called Gateway.

While all current economic and military space operations are within Earth’s orbits, the accelerating growth of the space industry will rapidly offer exposure to the cislunar space and its significant operational advantages. According to a variety of US civil and military department whitepapers and workshops, command and control in the cislunar space is a key economic and security strategic objective for the US and other global powers and it plays a pivotal role in developing the trajectory of forecast scenarios. Transportation and logistics in the cislunar space is one of six areas vital to overall US national space power and the US space industrial base, as well as an area most likely to be a focal point in great power competition. The significance is akin to the development of transcontinental railroads that established and bolstered the national interests of Canada and the US alike. Commercial innovation and COTS will be crucial to cislunar operations, along with institutional support as exemplified by NASA and DARPA developments in nuclear thermal propulsion.

Cislunar space is the best location to quarterback Earth orbit and outer space operations; its business case is currently being determined by the NewSpace, commercial sector of the space industry.

Whole-of-Government Canada

Whole of government requirements and defence procurement is continually increasing; this is a significant driver of space technology innovation and growth. Canada, the US, and its allies are investing in space technology because it is a force multiplier with vast applications. From resource management to security and defence to science and engineering to environmental sustainability, space technologies are greatly improving our access to the most pertinent information at the speed of relevancy for optimized decision making.

Exemplary programs: Joint All Domain Command and Control (JADC2), Strategic Homeland Integrated Ecosystems for Layered Defense (SHIELD), and Pathfinder, Dark Vessel Detection, RADARSAT CONSTELLATION MISSION, ADSA S&T, SMAP, SMOS, SWOT, M3MSAT, Nav Canada Aireon.

US Government

The US Government regards space as a key domain within the strategic commons and it is ensuring peaceful, secure, stable, and accessible operations therein.

Development and procurement areas: spacecraft, launch vehicles, space command and control systems, and terrestrial satellite terminals and equipment.

Acquisition programs: National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, Global Positioning System III and Projects, Space Based Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) Systems, Satellite Communications and strategic and NC3, protected, and wideband/narrowband projects.

Earth Observation

Big data analytics driving demand in Earth Observation (EO) offerings of medium and high resolution imagery that is supported by advancements in data fusion and cloud services. Demand is increasing due to pricing pressure resulting from lower barriers, new entrants, innovative offerings, scalability, and new data delivery models that offer subscription- and volume-based pricing. Exemplified by SpaceX Starlink, constellations in smallSat, cubeSat, and eSat are increasing throughout LEO due to rapid innovations, operational cost reductions, and NewSpace investments that increase the availability of EO offerings. Advancement in cloud services is a key technological enabler for EO market growth.

Ground Segment as a Service enables satellite operators to focus on data services and not ground infrastructure and operations that requires time, cost, and expertise. Turnkey solution that offers common ground infrastructure to serve multiple satellite operators with subscription- and volume-based pricing and an opportunity to shift expenditures to operational costs from capital investment.

EO market was valued at $2.7 billion USD in 2019 with forecast growth of $4.4 billion USD by 2025 at 8.5% CAGR.

FAA NextGen & Nav Canada Aireon

The FAA is overhauling the National Airspace System (NAS) to increase interoperability and situational awareness by establishing the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Enabled by digital transformation and satellite technologies, this modernization initiative will improve air safety, efficiency, environmental sustainability, passenger and aircrew enjoyability, and predictability. Predominantly satellite enabled navigation will eventually replace and reduce ground stations to fewer than 600-700 across the US. NextGen benefits and cost-savings are forecast at $100 billion USD by the 2030s based on pre-pandemic data.

NextGen will improve NAS communications, navigation, and surveillance. The FAA is focusing on several key enabling programs, many of which involve digital transformation and satellite technologies. The data communications program is forecast to save operators +$10 billion USD throughout its lifecycle; the FAA will save approx. $1 billion USD in future operating costs. The environment and energy program and its Continuous Lower Energy, Emissions, and Noise (CLEEN) public-private partnership is forecast to reduce domestic fleet fuel consumption by 2% throughout 2025-2050, resulting in carbon dioxide emissions reductions equivalent to removing 1.7 million cars from the road, decreasing noise pollution by 14%, and saving 22 billion gallons of jet fuel that results in cost-savings of $2.75 billion USD/year.

Additional programs include navigation and Performance Based Navigation (PBN), surveillance and Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) Out/In, automation and Decision Support System (DSS), information management and System Wide Information Management (SWIM), weather and NextGen Weather Processor (NWP) and Common Support Services–Weather (CSS-Wx), safety and other improvements enabled by digital transformation and satellite technologies.

Socio-Economic Benefits in Canada

Public safety, health, and security are being enabled and improved by satellite technologies. Earth Observation (EO), satellite communications (SATCOM), and satellite navigation (SATNAV) systems facilitate public safety and security by supporting logistics, military, law enforcement, HA/DR, SAR, and banking and facilitate public health by improving air quality and pollution, urban issues, pandemic recovery, pest and pestilence mitigation, and telehealth and telemedicine. Satellites that empower these operations are RADARSAT Constellation Mission, RADARSAT-2, GNSS/GPS, COSPAS-SARSAT, SCISAT, MOPITT, OSIRIS, and SMOS. The COSPAS-SARSAT satellite navigation system has offered considerable benefit; +1,500 Canadian and +32,000 worldwide lives saved $10 million CAD/year for the Government of Canada in SAR operational cost saved.

Agriculture production is enabled and improved by satellite technologies; EO and SATNAV systems facilitate resource optimization. Canadian farmers save $500-550 million CAD/year in terms of improved yield and operational efficiencies. SATNAV and precision agriculture saves $10-25/acre and EO and in-situ weather data saves $25-50/acre. Less than 10% of Canadian farmers use EO; if increased to 25% by 2027, forecast savings of $650 million - $1.3 billion CAD based on crop type may result. Satellites that empower these operations are RADARSAT Constellation Mission, RADARSAT-2, SMAP, and SMOS.

Environmental sustainability is empowered by satellite technologies. EO, SATCOM, and SATNAV systems facilitate climate change monitoring of ozone and air quality, ice and permafrost, and forestry and natural resources and facilitate ecosystem stewardship of maritime approaches and coastlines, wetlands, bird and migratory mammal conservation, and national park and tourism. Satellites that empower these operations are RADARSAT Constellation Mission, RADARSAT-2, SWOT, and SMOS.

Arctic and rural community connectivity is enabled and improved by satellite technologies. SATCOM systems facilitate broadband internet connectivity and support telecommuting, telemedicine, digital healthcare, online education, maritime logistics and security, fisheries and industry, and space and scientific observations. Satellite-enabled broadband generated approx. $2.2 billion CAD to Canadian GDP between 2008-2017 and by 2027, it is forecast that 80% of the rural community at +400,000 households will be connected and generate $2.7 billion CAD in market growth. Satellites that empower these operations are RADARSAT Constellation Mission, RADARSAT-2, M3MSat, SMOS, SWOT, and THEMIS.

Air traffic management is driven and improved by satellite technologies. SATCOM, SATNAV, and intermittently by EO systems that facilitate greater airspace interoperability and situational awareness. Reduced flight separation constraints enabled by ADS-B Out/In can reduce 450 litres in fuel burn/flight resulting in ten of millions CAD in cost savings/year over Gander-Shanwick airspace (Atlantic Ocean) and save 27.6 million tons of CO2 equivalent emission across Canadian airspace by 2027. Air traffic management enabled by ADS-B Out/In is forecast to generate approx. $19 million CAD/year in fees through NAV Canada by 2027 based on pre-pandemic data. Similarly, transportation and logistics are also enabled and improved by satellite technologies by facilitating PNT and IoT. Satellite-based IoT will improve container utilization and generate $170 million CAD in productivity for the Canadian maritime industry by 2025, as well as improve speed monitoring and save $50 million CAD/year in fuel burn for the Canadian trucking industry. Satellites that empower these operations are RADARSAT Constellation Mission and RADARSAT-2, SMOS, SWOT, and M3MSat.

ADS-B Out/In

Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) is a transponder enabled by satellite navigations systems that improves airspace and runway interoperability, situational awareness, safety, and air route efficiencies, as well as decreases costs and reduces air and noise pollution. This technology is the foundational capability and underwrites the FAA NextGen program that is transitioning aircraft separation and air traffic control from ground stations to satellite enabled. ADS-B Out broadcasts a WAAS-enhanced GPS position to ground for air traffic controllers while ADS-B In receives FAA Flight Information System-Broadcast (FIS-B) data directly or via ground station.

On January 1st, 2020, the FAA mandated ADS-B Out for Class A, B, and C, as well as Class E above 10,000 ft. MSL and not below 2,500 ft. AGL amongst other minor criteria. Transport Canada, in alignment with ICAO and coordination with Nav Canada, will implement its ADS-B Performance Requirements Mandate at a future date to harness the Aireon satellite-based navigation system and advance its performance-based navigation initiative. Aireon operates a leading-edge space-based air traffic surveillance system for ADS-B equipped aircraft worldwide and partners with Nav Canada and other leading Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs), partners with the FAA and L3Harris, and supported with Iridium Communications (NEXT constellation) and Microsoft Azure (AireonSTREAM, AireonINSIGHTS). Antenna diversity is a key component of this upcoming mandate, which involves optimally located aircraft antenna likely atop the fuselage to ensure satellite connectivity. Greater interoperability and situational awareness will be provided throughout airspace in the most remote areas of Canada including the Arctic. This mandate is driving considerable Canadian market opportunities.

Satellite-based ADS-B Out/In is one of many components of the system of systems network for greater interoperability and situational awareness across domains, platforms, partners, and people. Digital transformation is advancing cloud systems, artificial intelligence and machine learning, encryption, open source architecture, etc. and improving access and analysis of pertinent data at the speed of relevance for optimized decision making. Microsoft Azure and L3Harris Technologies are key providers and integrators of digital technologies and engineering and enable satellite-based ADS-B Out/In and the Aireon system; Microsoft Azure also supports Boeing cloud requirements, FAA NextGen, DoD Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI), and other possible components of the system of systems network. Satellite-based ADS-B Out/In is a key component of a system of systems network that improves economic productivity, ensures public safety and security, and connects communities.

Operational cost savings enabled by ADS-B Out/In is substantial. This technology will provide airline passengers and cargo consumers with lower pricing and greater offerings by decreasing operating costs and increasing routing options over the Arctic. The Canadian market will accrue tens of millions CAD in fuel savings at approx. 5,000 hours/day with improved airspace and routing efficiencies across key air traffic corridors amounting to GDP impact of at least $25 million CAD annually. Environmental sustainability is improved with a reduction of 27.6 million tons of CO2 equivalent emission across Canadian airspace by 2027 (pre-pandemic data) and lower noise pollution. Greater tax revenue will also accrue with $19 million CAD in Nav Canada fees by 2027 (pre pandemic data). ADS-B Out/In ensures safety compliance and underwrites key future transportation segments, such as urban air mobility and eVTOL by advancing interoperability and situational awareness.

Commercial Market

Market: Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies are driving the current and future space and satellite marketplace due to rapid innovation and advancements in SWaP-C, reusability, and NewSpace capital and business models.

Deliverables: Strategies, analyses, and research comprised of the market landscape, trends and drivers and enablers, company and academic profiles, customer and competitor surveys, regulatory assessments, licensing feasibility, brand and positioning, performance and operational value, sales and distribution channels, customer and technical support, pricing and financing, and development of value proposition and go-to-market plan.

Consultancy: Discovery and capture of new and future commercially driven market opportunities with strategies that grow business and revenue.

Government Requirements

Market: Government and military acquisition needs are growing and diversifying due the increased commercialization, rapid innovation and fieldability, advancements in SWaP-C and reusability, and changing geopolitical landscapes.

Deliverables: Assessments of government and military policies, strategies, and operational and mission-focused technology requirements, regulatory compliance, funding and grant programs, and workshops and seminars.

Consultancy: Advisements of current and future government and military key application and acquisition requirements that drive market demand and enable greater innovation for space and satellite technology companies and academic institutions. Discovery and capture of new and future government and military procurement and support opportunities with marketing strategies that grow business and revenue

Canadian Connectivity & Aerospace.

Market: The Government of Canada is driving significant support and demand to ensure broadband connectivity. This is a substantial boon to both the telecommunication and the aerospace industry.

Deliverable: Strategies, analyses, and research comprised of the market landscape, trends and drivers and enablers, company and academic profiles, customer and competitor surveys, regulatory assessments, licensing feasibility, brand and positioning, performance and operational value, sales and distribution channels, customer and technical support, pricing and financing, and development of value proposition and go-to-market plan.

Consultancy: Identifying business opportunities and developing marketing strategies for space and satellite offerings that are driven and supported by new initiatives in the Canadian Connectivity Strategy and enable greater interoperability and situational awareness in aviation and aerospace, ex: demand for ADS-B In/Out and antenna diversity affected by SWaP-C and NewSpace trends in LEO.

Case Study: Canadian ADS-B Out/In

Market: Near-horizon demand in the Canadian market for Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) Out with antenna diversity driven by upcoming regulatory compliance of Transport Canada and supported by Nav Canada and Aireon.

Deliverable: Assessments and interviews with Transport Canada, Nav Canada, and Aireon, as well as the FAA, to research and analyze the upcoming regulatory mandate for ADS-B Out with antenna diversity and eventually ADS-B In. Go-to-market strategy for ADS-B Out/In offerings, as well as Aireon SATNAV integrated component offerings, comprised of the market landscape, trends, and drivers, technology enablers, company and academic profiles, customer and competitor surveys, licensing feasibility, brand and positioning, performance and operational value, sales and distribution channels, customer and technical support, pricing and financing, and development of value proposition.

Consultancy: Business opportunities on the near horizon for ADS-B Out/In with antenna diversity technology, along with LEO satellite navigation units and components that are SWaP-C, disaggregated, reusable, NewSpace enabled, and support the requirements of Aireon and Nav Canada, Iridium Communications, and partners. Aero Polaris Consulting Ltd. identifies these business opportunities, assesses the landscape, and develops go-to-market strategies that grow revenue.